Prediction Markets
Decentralized prediction markets have long been touted as a groundbreaking application of Web3. They offer transparency, efficiency, and verifiable ways to wager on real-world events, from sporting matches to election outcomes.
Vitalik has been discussing prediction markets for years; let’s examine their current state.
Azuro’s monthly volume for April reached $70 million, a threefold increase from last April’s volume. Transactions on Azuro have doubled over the same period. Additionally, 70% of this volume originated from Polygon, with the remainder on Gnosis.
Polymarket’s monthly volume for April reached $26 million, which is an eightfold increase from last April’s volume. Currently, Polymarket is exclusively available on Polygon.
Azuro and Polymarket are the largest prediction markets, followed by EtherFlip, WINR Protocol, and others.
None of the protocols mentioned above currently have a token, so there is no direct way to invest in them.
Azuro appears to be the clear leader in terms of metrics. Unlike other prediction markets, it is not merely a casino but a comprehensive infrastructure and liquidity layer for gaming and gambling protocols to build upon.
Currently, 70% of the market volume is on Polygon, but as Base is growing rapidly, we can expect prediction markets to launch on Base and potentially erode Polygon’s market share in the prediction market space.
Polymarket is also performing well, receiving considerable free marketing from its Biden and Trump pool.
The global online sports betting market size had a value of approximately USD 54.56 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 142.56 billion by 2032
The global horse betting market was valued at $44.3 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $91.2 billion by 2032.
With Web3, you can establish prediction markets for any type of event, such as the outbreak of war between two countries, a bank defaulting, or predicting what happens next in a series.
Gradually, Web3 prediction markets are likely to capture Web2 market share because they offer greater transparency, enhanced liquidity, and the flexibility to set up markets for any type of betting.
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